Forecast of yield and placement of winter rye crops on lands recommended for development
https://doi.org/10.30766/2072-9081.2025.26.3.618-627
Abstract
The paper presents a forecast of the winter rye yield on a farm of Tver region based on monitoring results and archival data. Long-term (1997–2022) monitoring of the yield of ‘Dymka’ winter rye cultivar and soil properties was conducted at the Gubino agricultural testing grounds within the terminal moraine hill, on an agro-ecological transect - production area intersecting its main landscape positions. Mathematical models of the dependence of rye yield on landscape factors under various weather conditions were calculated. Using a GIS system, the modeling data were transferred to the conditions of a farm genetically identical to the transect. The paper shows that the maximum rye yield (3.4 t/ha) was recorded during the drought in the year of harvesting, with optimal moisture it decreases to 3.1 t/ha, and with excess moisture – to 2.5 t/ha. In extreme climatic conditions (in years of drought or excess precipitation), the maximum impact on the rye yield is exerted by the variability of elevation marks within the field, whereas with optimal moisture, its productivity mainly depends on the agrochemical properties of the soil. The most important result of yield forecasting are synthetic maps that reflect the areas of different influence of agroclimatic conditions on crop yield. On the basis of these maps the land user can make correct conclusions about the suitability for growing rye in a particular area.
Supporting agencies: the research was carried out under the support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation within the state assignment of Federal Research Center V. V. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute (theme No. FGUR-2022-0017).
About the Authors
D. A. Ivanov
Federal Research Center V. V. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dmitriy A. Ivanov, DSc in Agricultural Science, professor, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief researcher, All-Russian Research Institute of Reclaimed Lands
27, Emmauss village, Kalininsky district, Tver region, 170530
M. V. Rublyuk
Federal Research Center V. V. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Maria V. Rublyuk, PhD in Agricultural Science, senior researcher, All-Russian Research Institute of Reclaimed Lands
27, Emmauss village, Kalininsky district, Tver region, 170530
N. A. Kharkhardinov
Federal Research Center V. V. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nikita A. Kharkhardinov, junior researcher, All-Russian Research Institute of Reclaimed Lands
27, Emmauss village, Kalininsky district, Tver region, 170530
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Review
For citations:
Ivanov D.A., Rublyuk M.V., Kharkhardinov N.A. Forecast of yield and placement of winter rye crops on lands recommended for development. Agricultural Science Euro-North-East. 2025;26(3):618-627. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30766/2072-9081.2025.26.3.618-627
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